Despite significant losses near Avdiyivka, Russians continue to transfer reinforcements there – ISW


The Russians are moving reinforcements to Avdiyivka in Donetsk region, despite heavy losses and difficulties in attacking Ukrainian positions, says a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The Institute notes that Russian troops are gathering additional forces in Avdiyivka direction, despite constant problems with frontal mechanized attacks and the failure of a new offensive attempt on October 19-20.

Several Russian milbloggers claim that on October 22, there were no significant changes in Avdiyivka direction.

It is likely that Russian troops took a break again after a major offensive that failed and resulted in significant losses.

Another Russian milblogger claims that Ukrainian forces β€œunexpectedly” counterattacked in the direction of Pisky (8 km southwest of Donetsk) and ousted Russian troops from positions in the area.

According to another, statements about the advance of Ukrainian troops in the area of Pisky and Opytne (4 km south of Avdiyivka) are untrue.

And geolocation footage published on October 21 indicates that Russian troops have recently made a minor advance southeast of Pervomaiske (11 km southwest of Avdiyivka).

The Russian milblogger claims that the invaders have not completely captured the territory of the Avdiyivka waste heap, and that this territory is a β€œgray zone.”

The milblogger also associated with the Kremlin, discussed the difficulties that could lead to a β€œpositional deadlock” for Russian offensive operations in Avdiyivka direction. He argued that it was difficult to wage a war of maneuver on a static front line with a large number of personnel and fortified areas on both sides. He also noted that Ukrainian drones and other precision weapons are making enemy armored vehicles increasingly vulnerable and complicating ground attacks.

In addition, according to him, Russian troops face difficulties in overcoming Ukrainian minefields near Avdiyivka and cannot completely destroy Ukrainian logistics, which allows the Ukrainian command to quickly transfer personnel to critical areas.

Russian sources have previously claimed that Ukrainian defense fortifications pose a significant challenge to Russian advances around Avdiyivka.

Western analysts note that these problems are very similar to those faced by Ukrainian forces in southern Ukraine in the first weeks of the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in June 2023. However, it remains to be seen whether Russian troops have the capability and flexibility to adapt to some extent, as Ukrainian troops did after their initial setbacks in June 2023.

Data from Ukrainian sources also indicate that Russian troops continue to send personnel to Avdiyivka direction to support offensive operations, despite significant losses.



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