Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed how the mobilization order is implemented in Russia, and also came to the conclusion that different processes of mobilization in different regions can exacerbate social tension in the Russian Federation, reports ISW, it says UP
Russia’s mobilization system is struggling to meet the challenge set by Russian President Vladimir Putin, and likely will not be able to produce a mobilized reserve force of even the low quality envisioned by Putin’s plans unless the Kremlin can quickly correct fundamental and systemic problems.
The institute notes that problems and mistakes in the first days of large-scale and complex partial mobilization during an unsuccessful war are not unexpected, although they indicate that the Russian military mobilization infrastructure was prepared for a major war no better than the Russian armed forces.
Still, according to military analysts, it’s entirely possible that Russia’s Defense Ministry will address some of its worst problems and mount a mobilization effort.
The ISW notes that disagreements with the decree on mobilization and Putin’s and Shoigu’s statements regarding the categories of men who are exempt from mobilization also cause anger and mistrust of the Russian subjects of the federation and the Kremlin itself.
According to experts, different processes of mobilization in different regions can exacerbate social tension in Russia, which has already increased due to the perception of inequality in the creation of volunteer battalions.
In particular, the leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, said that the Chechen Republic will not carry out mobilization, as the republic has already exceeded the draft “plan” by 254 percent.
Key findings of ISW analysts:
- Already in the first days, the Russian partial mobilization encountered serious and systemic problems, which cause discontent among the population and create conditions for the formation of a mobilization reserve, unable to fulfill the tasks set before it by the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin.
- Protests, attacks on conscription points and acts of vandalism took place across Russia in the first 48 hours after the partial mobilization was announced.
- Ukrainian troops continued their advance to the north and northwest of Liman.
- Ukrainian forces continued their interception campaign in the Kherson region and maintained operational silence regarding the advance of Ukrainian troops on the contact line.
- Russian troops continued unsuccessful assaults near Bakhmut and northwest of Donetsk.
- Ukrainian forces shot down an Iranian-made Mohajer-6 drone, probably near Odessa.
- The Russian occupation authorities began the voting period in their fake annexation referendums on September 23 with blatant coercion and falsification of voter turnout data.
- The Russian occupation authorities remained on high alert to prevent attacks on election commission members, polling stations and government facilities.