Events in Israel may affect the war that the Russian Federation intends to wage on Ukrainian soil,


Also, Israel is currently under a massive rocket attack from the Gaza Strip. The rockets reach even Jerusalem, where there have already been hits in the hills on the outskirts of the city. Other Israeli cities are also under attack.

It is obvious that the beginning of the war, which coincided with the last day of the Jewish holidays, was a surprise both for the Israel Defense Forces and for the special services of this country. For the last time, it was believed that the Hamas organization, which controls the Gaza Strip, is not interested in active hostilities and that it is possible to negotiate with it on reducing the escalation. Such an agreement, by the way, was reached just a few hours before the attack with the mediation of the Arab countries. And it was believed that in the near future Israel would not be threatened by anything from the Gaza Strip.

However, now, for the first time in 50 years since the Yom Kippur War, the IDF has declared a state of war, unprecedented news for the entire region. Of course, Israel will now prepare for a severe response to the appearance of militants on its territory, threats to civilians and rocket attacks. It is absolutely obvious that the question of the country’s readiness for such military actions will arise. After all, it is now obvious that the relevant services did not prepare for the attack, that for an attack of such intensity there may not be enough bomb shelters and appropriate actions on the part of special services, that the government underestimated the danger that threatened Israel directly from the militants of the Hamas organization and other Palestinian terrorist organizations, which are now joining this attack.

An attack by Hamas militants on Israel can have serious consequences from the point of view of the international situation. It is known from the history of the last decades that the war in the Middle East always becomes a central moment of destabilization for the relations between the West and the Arab world, changes the configuration of relations, and can undermine the agreements that already exist. And, of course, such a war shifts the focus of attention from all those events that took place in the world before the beginning of the crisis in the Middle East. Especially if we witness a new big confrontation.

So one of the main beneficiaries of this war could be Russian President Putin, whose government has long maintained close contacts with Hamas and was actually the first government that was ready to dialogue with the leadership of this terrorist organization after Hamas won the parliamentary elections in the Palestinian Authority and established their control over the sector. It is quite important for Russia that wars are now starting in different regions of the world and that the West cannot focus on helping Ukraine and Moscow has a free hand in continuing the war of attrition, which Putin considers the real way out of the situation in which he finds himself. as a result of the blitzkrieg fiasco on Ukrainian territory.

Of course, it is worth remembering that among those who will support Hamas in its confrontation with Israel and its readiness to continue hostilities are the allies of the Russian Federation, primarily the Islamic Republic of Iran, which helps Hamas with weapons and economic survival, after the terrorist organization lost support in the Arab world and cannot hope for significant help if it does not abandon escalation. Before our eyes, coalitions will be reformatted and intentions will change, because Hamas attacked Israel just on the eve of the possible normalization of this country’s relations with Saudi Arabia.

Thus, a crisis may arise not only as a result of this attack by Hamas, but also if a confrontation between Israel and the Arab countries begins. And this can happen if a corresponding operation of the Israeli army begins against Hamas militants in the territory of the Gaza Strip itself. Here, the Arab governments will react quite seriously to what will happen during this retaliatory action and to the civilian population of the Gaza Strip, which is now welcoming the terrorists returning from Israeli territory.

So, we are now, one might say, on the eve of earth-shattering tragic events, which may be indicative of the entire international situation, not only in the coming days, not only in the coming days, but perhaps in the coming months and even years. If we remember how the Doomsday War changed the international situation, after which oil prices were never the same as before this attack by Arab countries on the State of Israel, which changed international alliances and configurations that never returned to their previous state, we we can imagine how a new war, unless it ends literally in a matter of hours, can change the face of the Middle East and the world and thus affect the war that Russia expects to wage on Ukrainian soil in the coming months and years.

All calculations against the background of the crisis in the Middle East, as evidenced by the history of mankind, may turn out to be useless and shift in a completely different, not yet foreseen direction. So one can only hope that a new war in the Middle East will not develop into a global crisis that cannot yet be clearly and concretely predicted.


About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, laureate of the Shevchenko Prize

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.



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