The Ukrainian hydrometeorological center calls the expectation of an extremely severe winter of 2022/2023 baseless. This is stated in messages of the Ukrhydrometeorological center in the Facebook social network, Ukrainian News reports.
“Recently, reports about the extremely harsh winter of 2022-2023 have been circulating in the mass media and social networks. Such information does not have a scientific basis and scientifically based methodical calculations”the message says.
The Hydrometeorological Center notes that the modern development of meteorological science around the world does not allow making forecasts of the development of atmospheric processes with such great advance notice. At the same time, due to meteorological observations, which count in most regions of Ukraine for 80-100 years or more, the creation of relevant databases of Ukrainian meteorologists has the opportunity to determine trends in the temperature regime in Ukraine.
The results of the analysis of temperature indicators in Ukraine over the past 30 years indicate the following:
– the transition of the average daily temperature by +8 degrees downwards (the beginning of the heating period) even in the northern regions of Ukraine takes place in the third decade of October, in other regions of Ukraine at the beginning of November and later;
– the average monthly temperature of the winter period (especially January and February) increased by 2.0-2.5 degrees;
– the duration of the winter period with temperatures below zero degrees has significantly decreased;
– the amount of negative temperatures during the winter period decreased by 2 times;
every winter, a large number of temperature records are recorded for the highest temperatures for the entire period of meteorological observations;
– the transition of the average daily temperature in spring by +8 degrees in the direction of increase is carried out in the first decade of April and earlier (the end of the heating period).
The Hydrometeorological Center notes that based on the results of the analysis of temperature indicators over the past decades, the following conclusions can be drawn:
– the average temperature of the winter period for the period December-February is expected to be 1-2 degrees higher than the norm calculated for the period 1991-2020;
– the probability of prolonged cold in the winter period in Ukraine is minimal;
– quite probable short-term significant cooling lasting 1-5 days;
– the transfer of the beginning of the heating period to later dates and its end to earlier dates is justified and confirmed by meteorological calculations.