Last year’s G-20 declaration referred to “aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine”, but now there is no such wording. “Western diplomats said China’s refusal to repeat the wording was crucial to push summit host India to offer compromise wording.”
In fact, Modi simply focused almost the entire agenda of the summit on the tasks and prospects of purely India. He has milked all the potential resources of the G-20 meeting dry to get maximum benefits.
First of all, it is about the announcement of the creation of a new global rail and sea corridor India-Europe through the Middle East (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel). It is planned to connect energy networks, lay ground and underwater cables, possibly immediately lay hydrogen pipelines from Israel to Europe, and implement other auxiliary projects. In fact, it should generally connect the ASEAN countries with Europe through India and the Arabian Peninsula instead of/in addition to China and Central Asia (“New Silk Road”) and China and Russia (while the Trans-Siberian is de facto monopolized by China).
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In the medium term (20 years), if all of the above is implemented, we will get a global geo-economic replacement: in the current place of China (as a concentrator of cheap mass production, including high-tech, and as a global transitor, and as a center of the largest wholesale markets on the planet) India will come with the in-principle approval of the USA and the EU. With such a scale, a local attempt to destroy Ukraine by Russia is really not something that India is interested in focusing on.
Although this also demonstrates the role assigned to Russia – none. Neither India, nor China, nor the USA, nor the EU are considered by the Kremlin to be one of the poles of global geopolitics in the near future. The Russian Federation has been written off.
Against this background, Ukraine’s task is to organically join new global projects, to prove that we are necessary and profitable there. And to convince allies and neutrals that we really can end the war in the shortest possible time and speed up the final leveling of the Russian factor.
That is, to begin with, to overcome today’s narrative in the information field, “the counteroffensive is very slow, it has practically failed, and in the fall everything will generally stop, and maybe the territory will be lost again.”
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In the end, I would not evaluate the results of the G-20 summit as negative for Ukraine (especially since the G-7, which is on our side despite all the complications, has not yet taken place). How serious – yes. As such, forcing to adjust foreign and domestic (yes, corruption) policy? So. But not negative.
The planet is moving forward. Russia has already been practically pushed out of this train. We don’t just have to catch the train in time, but manage to get closer to the locomotive – theoretically, such prospects are still real for us.
About the author. Oleksiy Holobutsky, political scientist
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