The risk of a Russian offensive from Belarus remains low, reports the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Earlier, Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov was the deputy chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reportedthat the threat of a repeated attack from the territory of Belarus is growing.
According to ISW analysts, such a course of events remains unlikely in the coming months, given the fact that Russian forces do not even have the ability to block Ukrainian supply routes from the west with the help of a ground offensive. The nearest Ukrainian east-west railway line is 30 km from the Belarusian border, and the Pripyat marshes make it extremely difficult to conduct maneuver warfare across the international border in the Volyn and Rivne regions. Ukraine’s road and rail network has enough junctions with Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary that a Russian invasion from Belarus could not seriously impair Ukrainian logistics lines without penetrating deep into Ukraine, as the Russians did during the Battle of Kyiv, when Russian forces were at their strongest. . Now these forces are significantly weakened.
The spokesman of the US National Security Council, John Kirby, repeated on October 20 that Belarus can concentrate manpower on the border in order to fix Ukrainian forces in the north of Ukraine and prevent their deployment in the zone of active hostilities in the south and east of Ukraine. VIDEO OF THE DAY