Investor interest in Ukraine will greatly depend on security guarantees: the country’s membership in NATO will increase it three to ten times, said Deputy Head of the President’s Office, Rostyslav Shurma, at the Kyiv International Economic Forum on Thursday.
“If in a positive scenario of ending the war and joining NATO, we have 100 large investors, or 1,000, or 10,000, then (without NATO membership) it will be one third, one fifth, one tenth – depending on who will be willing to take a certain risk,” he said.
According to him, in a positive scenario of the end of the war and entry into NATO, economic growth will exceed 10% over the coming years, while in the scenario of a protracted war, which is partially compensated by risk insurance, this could be growth of 3-6% and this will be much longer and more complex process.
Asked about the possibility of Ukraine repeating the experience of Israel or South Korea, Shurma admitted that this is possible.
“It will just be much more difficult and it will be under certain conditions. Under what conditions? What is Israel, what is South Korea? This is very stable and strong support, in particular from the United States,” the official emphasized.
He clarified that there is a permanent U.S. military presence in South Korea, and 70% of Israel’s external debt is covered by a U.S. sovereign guarantee.
“That is, we are talking about such fundamental anchor things that guarantee a certain stability and a certain protection,” Shurma explained.
He added that if to look at South Korea and Israel, local business still dominates there: 7-10 large chaebols in South Korea and local startups and companies in Israel.
“Of course, there are separate localized production facilities of large Western corporations, but the basis is still local business. Therefore, depending on how the situation develops, we will probably also have a different share of foreign business in Ukraine,” he said.
He also admitted that due to the prolongation of the war, foreign investors are adjusting their views and plans regarding possible investments in Ukraine, which was confirmed by a recent meeting in the United States with the largest investment funds such as BlackRock, Blackstone, Citadel, and JP Morgan.