Referendums, mobilization in Russia, Putin's canceled address: what it means for Ukraine - Ukraine news, Politics

Referendums, mobilization in Russia, Putin’s canceled address: what it means for Ukraine – Ukraine news, Politics

Russia raises the degree. On September 20, puppets controlled by the Kremlin announced pseudo-referendums in the occupied territories, and the illegitimate State Duma of the Russian Federation adopted amendments to the constitution that hint at the preparation of a general mobilization.

From such hints in Russia came collapse on the Moscow Exchange, and the Russians began actively seek in Google: how to leave the Russian Federation.

In the evening the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin was supposed to make a televised address, but never aired.

“The topic of fake referendums in the war zone was supposed to test public opinion. Not only in the Russian Federation. And show the potential of this topic. And scare everyone along the way … Time to rewrite the speech,” he said. LIGA.net Mikhail Podolyak, Advisor to the Head of the President’s Office.

How Ukraine and the world reacted to the idea of ​​referendums, what would (not) give Russia a possible mobilization – explains LIGA.net.

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WHAT’S HAPPENED. Russian-controlled terrorist leaders and gauleiters announced pseudo-referendums in the occupied territories of Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.

Almost simultaneously, the occupiers appointed the dates: September 24-27.

REFERENCE. Initially, the plans of the Russians, apparently, included a referendum in the Kharkiv region. On it, the Russian Federation wanted to “draw” 75% of the votes for the annexation of the region, says in intelligence documents received by Donbass.Realii. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine practically drove the occupiers out of the region during the offensive.

At the same time, the illegitimate State Duma of the Russian Federation approved the introduction of the concepts of “mobilization”, “martial law” and “wartime” into the criminal code. For the Russians, prison terms are being introduced for voluntary surrender, looting and AWOL during the period of hostilities.

Belarusian dictator Lukashenka instructed to check the army, and the ex-president of the Russian Federation Medvedev threatened nuclear weapons in case Ukraine strikes at its own territories after the annexation.

RosSMI announced an appeal at 20:00 Putin and even launched broadcast windows. It was expected that he could confirm the pseudo-referenda in the occupied territories and announce a general mobilization.

Read also: Many Russian ‘volunteers’ refuse to fight after UAF offensive – Pentagon

But the dictator did not appear on the air for two hours – the appeal did not take place. Russian propagandists are hinting that it will be shown tomorrow morning. While Putin stubbornly did not go on the air, sharply started to grow the search query among Russians became: “how to quickly leave the Russian Federation.”

US presidential adviser Jake Sullivan Yermak discussed national security issues. The White House has information that Putin is preparing grounds for mobilization. But the US will support Ukraine in any case, assured at the Pentagon.

WHY IS IT IMPORTANT. For Ukraine and its partners it doesn’t change anything, He speaks LIGA.net adviser to the head of the OP Mikhail Podolyak.

“As for our partners. Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Crimea are Ukraine. We are waging a defensive war, and our actions there are absolutely legal and internationally legitimate,” the adviser to the head of the Presidential Office said.

Fake “referendums” Russia is trying to respond to the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, says Podolyak. According to him, this is more of a show for an internal audience to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

“We haven’t started yet”, “we haven’t fought yet”, “here’s how we’ll start” – from the same opera. A banal attempt to delay his own defeat. At least in the information space,” Podolyak believes.

That Russia is announcing pseudo-referendums in response to the successful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkov, sure and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

Read also: Interview | Roman Kostenko: Zaluzhny carried out the offensive brilliantly. Should have gone with Zelensky to Izyum

With the theme of pseudo-referendums, Putin is testing public opinion and intimidating, explains Podolyak, the cancellation of the speech of the Russian dictator. The result of the experiment: in Russia they google how to leave the country, and the world community called it absurd, which will require an increase in the supply of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and increased sanctions.

Russia may use referendums to bargain with the West, predicts LIGA.net Iliya Kus, international expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future: “As I understand it, the Russians are sending a signal: let’s start negotiating, and we won’t rush with ‘referendums.’ postpone from summer, even from late spring.

Threat of full mobilization. This can add power to Russia in “cannon fodder”, explains LIGA.net military expert Igor Koziy. But there will be no immediate effect, he says. LIGA.net Aleksey Melnik, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center, ex-Deputy Minister of Defense.

According to Melnik, the Russian Federation needs time to gather the mobilized, and then two options are possible: they will immediately be thrown into battle untrained, like “cannon fodder”, or they will be prepared for three months.

“Ukraine will still have time to prepare for their meeting. It would make no sense to use these months so that the mobilized people would not be promoted here,” Melnyk describes this scenario.

Another problem is to provide the mobilized with equipment, he adds. Russia was not preparing for a protracted conflict. After seven months of the war, it turned out that she no longer had Soviet production facilities. But even “cannon fodder” should not be neglected.

“Everyone will have a machine gun in their hands. They can be used not in the forefront, but, for example, to control the occupied territories. Then the Russian Federation will have the opportunity to replace combat units … In any case, this is an increase in personnel. This is a challenge,” he said. Miller.

Russia is already conducting a partial covert mobilization and among crime, reminded Koziy. But general mobilization also carries great risks for Russia, up to riots and collapse.

“The point is what the consequences of this mobilization will be for them. 1917 led to the collapse of the Russian Empire, the war in Afghanistan led to the collapse of the USSR,” says Koziy. And they get it too.”

General mobilization will hit Putin’s regime more than Ukraine, I agree military intelligence representative Vadim Skibitsky. It will mean recognition that the Russian Federation has not been able to fulfill all the tasks set – and there is a real war going on.

Read also: “PMC Wagner suffers heavy losses.” The reaction of the United States to the video with Prigozhin and the recruitment of prisoners

WHAT’S NEXT. Russia remains an aggressor and occupier, while Ukraine has the right to liberate its territories, declared Foreign Secretary Dmitry Kuleba. But the chances for diplomacy are vanishing.

“No matter how strongly the Russian Federation hints at a total war, this will not change the position of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the president. All internationally recognized Ukrainian territories will be de-occupied. But without referendums, there is still the slightest chance for a diplomatic solution. After the referendums, no,” assured LIGA.net speaker of the president Sergei Nikiforov.

Sanctions and more arms supplies to Ukraine should be response to referendums, governments say Estonia and Latvia. But sharp sanctions should not be expected if they are carried out, because in December it will work anyway oil embargo with the EU, suggests Kusa.

“But if there is a use of nuclear weapons, then any Western sanctions will be possible, regardless of the price. I think that Asian countries can also join them. I think the Russians are well aware that the use of nuclear weapons will be a point of no return for them,” the expert summed up .

Read also: Pentagon: Holding “referenda” is an information operation of the Kremlin

IN THE USA turnedthat will never recognize the results of referendums. This does not even look like a demonstration of the Kremlin’s confidence in the strength of its position in the occupied territories, according to Washington. The position of France will change: Russia must leave Ukraine. Germany called “referendums” are fictitious – they cannot be recognized.

In NATO, Putin’s actions regard as an escalation of the war. According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenbergthe world must condemn this egregious violation of international law and step up support for Ukraine.

Read also: Digest | Meme “Holy Javelina” earned $ 1 million, Zelensky puts pressure on Biden. Overview of Western media

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Fuente: liga.net

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