The West is preparing scenarios for the response to the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation - FT

The West is preparing scenarios for the response to the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation – FT

He writes about it Financial Times with reference to several US and European officials.

“If he (Putin, – ed.) thinks that the threat (of a nuclear strike, – ed.) was supposed to induce Ukraine to capitulate or cede 20% of its territory, or to intimidate all of us from further assistance to Ukraine, the opposite has happened,” the high-ranking official said from the USA.

Two other Western interlocutors note that there is unlikely to be an equal response in response to a nuclear strike against Ukraine, but the Russian Federation can receive a response from its Western allies with conventional military means.

“There are a lot of “red lines”, and they are probably not where Putin “draws” them,” – notes one of them.

According to them, Western capitals perceived Putin’s words that he was “not bluffing” with nuclear threats as an attempt to seize the initiative after failures on the battlefield. The Kremlin’s plan may be to further present the war as “defense” after the pseudo-referendums in the occupied territories.

“Judging by the way the Russian missile strikes against Ukraine with conventional weapons took place, a nuclear strike can go “not according to plan” – for example, the Armed Forces can shoot down a missile with a nuclear charge, or the missile can go off course and target the wrong object, where it was originally directed. There is such a risk, there is great uncertainty about whether the strike will be successful,” says Pavel Podvig, a senior analyst at the UN Institute for Disarmament Studies.

US President Joe Biden has already said that if the Russian Federation uses nuclear weapons, the US response will depend on the scale of what Russia will do.

Three out of five interlocutors say that NATO member countries have privately conveyed signals to the Kremlin about the scale of the response to any use of nuclear weapons. In their view, response warning continues to be the best deterrent.

  • On September 21, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin resorted to threats of nuclear weapons and declared that the Russian Federation would use all available means in the event of a threat to its territorial integrity.
  • The White House called Putin’s rhetoric irresponsible and warned that if weapons of mass destruction were used, the Russian Federation would suffer “severe consequences.”

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