War news – ISW analysts analyzed the situation near Avdiivka


According to analysts, the Russians in this direction demonstrate the ability to learn and apply tactical lessons on the battlefield.

The Russians are unlikely to be able to achieve broad operational success near Avdiivka / photo

The Russians at Avdiyivka are demonstrating an ability to learn and apply tactical lessons on the battlefield, but despite this, they are unlikely to achieve widespread operational success in the area, the reports American Institute for the Study of War.

“Ongoing localized Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka likely demonstrate the ability of Russian forces to learn and apply tactical lessons on the battlefield in Ukraine… Russian sources noted Russia’s successes in the area and outlined several adaptations that suggest Russian forces are applying lessons learned during operations in the south of Ukraine, in other areas of the front,” analysts note.

In particular, Russian commanders say that Russian forces pay significant attention to counter-battery warfare, use electronic warfare (EW) systems, conduct reliable artillery training of the battlefield and demonstrate “clear interaction” between command, assault groups, aerial reconnaissance and artillery elements.

As analysts note, this assumption deserves attention, as Russian sources have previously emphasized these tactical adaptations as a strength of Russia’s defense against a Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. In addition, most of the Russian forces currently fighting in the Avdiyivka region are probably elements of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called “DNR”. Reports by Russian military commanders that units in the area demonstrate effective communication may indicate that the DPR forces have somewhat eased their integration into regular Russian forces and have learned lessons from previous ineffective and unsuccessful attacks in the Avdiyivka area, it is noted in ISW.

At the same time, American analysts argue that these adaptations and successes at the tactical level, however, are unlikely to translate into broader operational and strategic advantages for Russian forces. It is noted that Russian troops are concentrated southwest of Avdiivka, without completing the operational encirclement of the settlement, and it will be difficult for them to do so. Avdiyivka is also a well-fortified and protected Ukrainian stronghold, which will make it difficult for Russian troops to approach the settlement or capture it completely. In addition, Russian forces already control segments of the critical route N20 Donetsk – Kostiantynivka – Kramatorsk – Slovyansk and other routes that run near Avdiivka, so a hypothetical capture of Avdiivka will not open new avenues of advance to the rest of Donetsk Oblast.

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“As previously assessed by ISW, Russian forces likely intend to attack in the Avdiyivka area in order to pin down Ukrainian forces and prevent them from redeploying to other areas of the front. However, Ukrainian officials have already identified the offensive on Avdiyivka as a Russian pinning operation, and they are unlikely to will excessively direct Ukrainian forces to this axis,” the analysts noted.

The situation near Avdiivka

As reported by the General Staff, in the last few days, the Russians with the forces of up to three battalions, supported by tanks and armored vehicles, intensified offensive actions in the Avdiyivka, Tonenko, Keramik, and Pervomaisky areas of the Donetsk region.

As ISW analysts previously noted, the offensive of Russian forces in the Avdiyivka region is probably aimed at drawing Ukrainian forces away from the Robotyny region.

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