what to expect from the negative offensive of the Russians

what to expect from the negative offensive of the Russians

The probable counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south of Ukraine has been discussed since the summer. But the liberation of Kherson Oblast has been awaited ever since the Russian offensive on Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih failed in April. Finally, on November 9, the occupiers overpowered themselves and announced a new “gesture of goodwill”.

Since the beginning of summer, it has been predicted that Russia will not be able to hold Kherson and the entire right bank of the region for a long time due to poor logistics. The Armed Forces shelled the bridges across the Dnipro and did not allow the occupiers to bring in ammunition to support the right-bank group. Finally, on November 9, the new commander of the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine, Serhiy Surovikin, announced that the Russian army was leaving the right bank of the Kherson region. We are, of course, also talking about Kherson.

“It is expedient to organize defense along the barrier line of the Dnipro River, on its left bank… The decision on defense on the left bank of the Dnipro is not an easy one, at the same time we will preserve the lives of our soldiers and the combat capability of the troop group… The troop maneuver will be carried out in the near future, with “units will occupy prepared defensive lines on the left bank of the Dnieper,” said Surovikin.

Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Serhii Shoigu agreed with Surovikin’s conclusions: “Start withdrawing troops.” And the information space literally exploded.

Disappointment of the Russians

For the second day already, Ukrainian users of social networks can enjoy the “betrayal” carried out by Russian publics. Despite the fact that the Kremlin has not changed its habits and issued “methodology” to propagandists with false excuses and repeated attempts to accuse Ukraine of “terrorism”, the citizens of the Russian Federation are terribly outraged by the situation. Most of them no longer believe in the “multi-role” and the existence of some faint plan of a “special military operation”. And a lot already they ask the ruba question: “Why did tens of thousands of Russians die?”.

However, propagandists remind the most insolent citizens: Do you support the surrender of Kherson? Read the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, Article 280.1 – public calls for actions aimed at violating the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. Do you not support, condemn the surrender of Kherson? Read the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, Article 280.3 – public actions aimed at discrediting the use of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation…

The decision of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi on the formation of four military administrations of settlements in the Kherson region added heat to this fire. The corresponding decree No. 760/2022 of November 9 refers to the emergence of the Dolmativ and Holopristan military administrations of the Skadovsky district, as well as the Kakhovsky and Khrestiv military administrations of the Kakhovsky district. The whole “salt” is that Dolmativka, Gola Prystan, Kakhovka and Khrestivka are located in the part of the Kherson region occupied by the Russian invaders – on the left bank of the Dnieper, where the occupiers moved the occupation administration from Kherson a few weeks ago and where they are allegedly leaving.

Cautious victory of Ukraine

As the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar noted, the words of the Russians cannot be believed.

“One must always be ready for anything from their side,” she said and added that, fortunately, Ukrainians have already learned not to spread “false starts of victory” and allow the defense forces to work calmly, “without “overheating” the information field.”

“Our defense forces continue to push the enemy out of the temporarily occupied territories. With battles. Our freedom comes at a high price,” she said.

According to military expert Yevhen Dyky, storming a big city is a huge loss. So, if it was really possible to push the occupiers out of Kherson without an assault, it would be a great joy.

As for whether 100% of the occupiers are really withdrawing to the left bank of the Dnieper, Yevhen Dykiy reminds that the past few weeks have seen “swings” around this issue: “When on the one hand preparations were already being made for retreat, and on the other – from the left bank they threw more and more “mobikes””.

“Technically, Kherson can be made a modern analog of Stalingrad, and literally just this morning I thought that this is exactly what our opponents will try to do. But it seems that Stalingrad is canceled… Putin may well change his decision and leave the right-bank group to die heroically near Khymars , but still 99% that the decision to retreat is final. Kherson itself remains, so far stuffed with occupiers and surrounded by a line of trenches and dugouts, and purely theoretically everything can still change, but it is unlikely,” the expert notes.

At the same time, the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Jens Stoltenberg, believes that it is necessary to wait and see what is really happening in Kherson and on the right bank of the region.

“We have seen the announcement, but of course we will wait and see what is actually happening on the ground. But we really know that Russia was first pushed out from the north – near Kyiv, then in the east – around Kharkiv, and after that, indeed, we we really see how the Ukrainians are able to slowly push back the Russian forces also in the south around Kherson,” Stoltenberg said.

He assured that NATO will continue to support the Armed Forces both in Kherson Oblast and in the future.

Blackout and hard winter

Almost no one in Ukraine expects a quick and easy negative retreat of the Russians. And one can only guess in what state the occupiers leave behind Ukrainian cities and villages.

According to Olga Kosharnaya, an independent expert on nuclear energy, the mass rocket attacks of the occupiers during October and November 2 against the energy infrastructure of Ukraine were supplemented by the demolition of high-voltage network supports by Russian military equipment in the Berislav district of the Kherson region.

“The goal is to leave Kherson and neighboring villages without electricity, water, and communication. This is how the “liberators” take care of civilians, whom they call “one nation” with themselves,” she reminds.

Vitaliy Kim, the head of the Mykolaiv Oblast, said that the authorities of the Mykolaiv Oblast will prepare and send humanitarian aid to the de-occupied territories in the south.

“We are preparing a humanitarian aid: trucks with food, starlinks, generators. We will immediately send aid to people who have been under occupation for a long time,” he said.

In addition, we should expect new strikes by the occupiers on our critical infrastructure quite soon. After all, Russia does not hide such intentions. For example, the deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Andriy Lugovoi stated that “everything is going according to plan” in Kherson, but “we are ready to sow chaos and panic, finish the energy infrastructure so that no one has even a chance to think that during the cold season there will be comfortable conditions for life”.

According to military expert Yevgeny Dykyi, regardless of Ukraine’s capture of Kherson, Russia will continue “to hit our energy system with missiles and will try to provide us with a complete blackout as soon as it is technically possible to do so.”

“At the moment, they are held back only by the lack of missiles, but as soon as the Iranian ayatollahs deliver a batch of their unlicensed “almost Iskanders” and the army of self-made, but effective due to cheapness and quantity, “mopeds”, the “rocket show” will resume, he believes. .

Negotiation maneuver

But efforts to finally “pacify” Ukraine and Russia may be more dangerous than missiles. Even on the eve of the “gesture of goodwill” from the Russians in Kherson, Jake Sullivan, adviser to US President Joe Biden, arrived in Kyiv with the aim of pushing the Ukrainian authorities to negotiate with the Kremlin.

“In the event of the victory of the “Sullivan view” in Washington, we can easily turn off the tap of military aid and in this way be forced to negotiate peace with the aggressor, who, under the condition of continuing to supply us with weapons and BC, is simply doomed to a shameful and painful defeat already in quite a while A paradox, but just as the brilliant victory near Kharkov unlocked another large portion of the supply of Western “iron” for us, the victory in the Kherson region may cause a new round of pressure on us from the Western “peacekeepers”, – warns Yevhen Dykiy.

Thus, Turkish President Recep Erdogan has already called the escape of Russians from Kherson a “positive step” on the way to negotiations.

Negotiations have already been discussed in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. In particular, the press secretary of the Russian agency, Maria Zakharova, stated that Moscow is ready for a dialogue with Kyiv “taking into account the current realities.”

“We are, as before, open to negotiations. We have never refused them. We are ready to conduct them, of course, taking into account the current realities,” said Zakharova.

However, Ukraine perfectly understands the need of the Russians to incline us to such a step.

“We are always open to negotiations”, “we have never refused them”, “we are ready to conduct negotiations taking into account the realities that are emerging at the moment” are quoted. At the same time, a new notification about an air alert due to the launch of Russian missiles over Ukraine”, – reminds the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleg Nikolenko.

According to him, the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia is another “smoke screen”.

“Russian officials begin to mention talks every time Russian troops are defeated on the battlefield. By feigning readiness for dialogue, the Russian Federation is trying to buy time to regroup units, train newly mobilized Russians, resolve the issue of weapons shortages, eliminate logistical deficiencies, and then to resort to new waves of aggression with new forces. We already went through this in 2014-2015,” Nikolenko noted.

According to Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the head of the President’s Office, the liberation of Kherson or another important city is not the point after which the negotiation process with Russia can begin.

“It’s nonsense to talk about a serious negotiation process after the liberation of Kherson, after the liberation of Luhansk, etc. No. President Zelensky clearly states: they have left the territory of Ukraine – after that, of course, a negotiation process is possible,” he emphasized.

According to him, the Russians are currently trying to secure the ZNPP, the North Crimean Canal, the left bank of the Kherson region in order to secure Crimea.

So Russia doesn’t really offer any kind of peaceful negotiation process as it just wants to hold on to the territories occupied after February 24th. This will make it possible to fulfill (and “report” to the Russians) the minimum plan – Donbas, a land corridor to Crimea and control over the North Crimean Canal. And the withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnieper will not harm this plan in any way.

Tatiana Urbanska

Fuente: espreso.tv

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