Sometimes it happens that tactical pessimism comes over me. But from a strategic perspective, I remain optimistic, and here’s why
All the current power of Russia is built on three foundations:
1. Soviet legacy: a territory with resources, a considerable population, infrastructure, professors and presidents bought in the West and, most importantly, a lot of weapons for a world war.
2. Money since the oil rain of 1999-2008, just exorbitant money.
3. Putin’s political regime of totalitarian mobilization.
So, according to the results of this war, when and no matter how it ends, Russia will lose 2 of its 3 pillars of power.
Russian industry will never again be able to produce as many tanks and missiles as the Soviet one could, and the old reserves will one day run out or completely rot.
Russian oil and gas have forever lost the rich and capacious European market, so even if sanctions are lifted, trade with China and India will still not bring super profits to the Kremlin. And the United States will no longer allow Russia back into Europe.
The population of Russia will never be as large as before – the successes of the empire and the USSR in endless wars are largely due to inexhaustible human resources. Moreover, changes in Russian ethno-confessional demographics will provoke serious internal conflicts.
Yes, Russia may again experience another authoritarian turn in the future, but without old weapons and without money for new ones, they will no longer pose the same threat as in 2022.
Perhaps the current war will not be the last. We may have to fight again for the final liberation of Donbass if we fail this time. But I am sure that the Russians’ campaign against Kyiv in 2022 was the last in history and this will definitely not happen again in the future.
Articles published in the “Opinions” section reflect the point of view of the author and may not coincide with the position of the editors of LIGA.net